It certainly seems Iowans are fickle and go along with the last candidate they hear. It’s hard to fathom why evangelicals would be rallying behind Ron Paul…Besides being too old to be elected President, he’s liberal to the bone, his foreign policy would have us attacked in a heartbeat. be ###
In a post entitled “No Surprise, Iowa Social Conservatives Are About To Shoot Us All in the Foot Again,” Erik Erickson at RedState opines that a new CNN poll showing former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum moving to third in the state, on the backs of religious voters. It’s true; Santorum gets 16 percent of the total vote, and 22 percent of self-identified born-again Christians. But Paul gets 20 percent of born-agains; Romney gets 16, and Gingrich 14. So there’s no evidence that religious conservatives are bunching up behind a chosen candidate. They’re as diffuse as any demographic in the Iowa GOP numbers. More generally, the idea that Paul doesn’t resonate with religious voters within the GOP seems to be based on his proud adherence to libertarian tenets. But as TPM has reported, Paul has been making a play for evangelical votes all along, and the move actually may have caused more problems than it was worth. The latest PPP numbers provide the likely answer to why evangelicals themselves aren’t even going with the candidates that pander to them — only 12 percent of the like Iowa GOP caucus-goers said that the social issues were the most important concern in 2012. 39 percent said cutting the deficit, with 25 saying jobs, for a total of 64 percent of voters more concerned about the economy in some way. So the Iowa caucuses may again pick a very conservative candidate with little to no chance of actually getting the nod. But this time, it might be a candidate who wants to take out the Federal Reserve, not go to war on gay marriage.
